The difficulties caused by the Covid-19 epidemic caused the cashew industry to calculate to lower its export target of USD 4 billion set for the whole year. It is forecast that, in the coming time, although the Covid-19 epidemic is controlled, Vietnam's cashew exports will still decrease in both quantity and value.
May miss 1 billion USD
According to MARD, cashew exports in the first 3 months of the year were estimated at 86 thousand tons and 609 million USD, up 8.2% in volume but down 4.7% in value over the same period in 2019. US, Netherlands and China remained the three largest import markets of Vietnam cashew, accounting for 35.4%, 12% and 6.1%, respectively. The average export price of cashew nuts in the first 2 months of the year reached 7,046 USD / ton, down 14% compared to the same period in 2019.
Mr. Pham Van Cong, Chairman of Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) said that the cashew industry has just overcome the crisis period in 2018 and early 2019 with heavy losses. The evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic makes the industry again in a very difficult period and does not anticipate the negative and negative impacts on each enterprise and the whole industry.
“The quantity of cashew kernels exported and prices will sharply decrease, the plan of US $ 4 billion of exports in 2020 of the Vietnamese cashew industry will have to be reduced. The specific reduction of the plan will be considered and adjusted by Vinacas Executive Committee but I personally think it will be possible to achieve only 3 billion USD, "Mr. Cong emphasized.
The Chairman of Vinacas further analyzed that the world cashew industry, including Vietnam, is facing great and unpredictable challenges. China initially controlled the Covid-19 epidemic, but more than 180 countries around the world including the US and Europe - the main markets of Vietnamese cashew nuts; Africa - the main source of raw cashew nuts of Vietnam cashew processing industry, has to "fight" against the epidemic. more and more heavily affected by Covid-19.
Exports are still "retired" after the epidemic?
According to Vinacas, some customers are now asking factories to deliver goods as soon as possible because they are concerned that the upcoming transportation of goods in the world may be difficult due to blockade and isolation among regions. Freight increased. In addition, some customers recommend that the factories should be calm, do not sell off as they are now because when the price decreases continuously, psychology of buyers is afraid of falling prices and wants to wait for more. They also recommend that factories buy raw cashew slowly, when it sees a suitable price, which is also an opportunity to earn profits for this year.
Vinacas further information, now supermarkets, fried houses, importers are considering assessing the impact of Covid-19 on the economic market and the grain industry to have a next trading strategy. Although they found the price to be very good, they only bought a small amount, then waited a few days and paid lower to explore the market to see how much the price dropped.
Mr. Cong shared: “After the epidemic is under control, with devastating devastation to the world economy, the life of the people will face many difficulties. Cashews are a by-product and will reduce their consumption compared to before. In this serious context, Vietnam's export of cashew kernels will certainly decrease in both quantity and turnover. The level of reduction also depends on the time the epidemic is extinguished and how harmful it is in the world. "
Giving a not too pessimistic view, the Import and Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that cashew nuts are a daily food with high nutritional value, so even though it will be seriously affected by Covid-19 epidemic. and strong competition from other nuts, the demand will still not small. According to market analysts, the cashew export market will recover after the Covid-19 epidemic was under control. Enterprises can calculate the plan to boost exports for the last 6 months of this year. In particular, the potential from the EU market is huge.
The Import and Export Department recommends businesses to closely monitor the disease situation to have an appropriate production and business plan, including purchasing raw cashew nuts, selling cashew nuts for processing and storing raw materials and finished products; at the same time, there are plans to transform trade promotion forms such as online promotion, connecting online businesses to maintain and develop the market even when epidemics are happening; ensuring that it can quickly restore all activities as soon as the epidemic is controlled and ends ...
Vinacas recommends that in the coming time, factories should buy and sell slower, constantly update market information from many sources to offer the most appropriate trading plan in the difficult situation of the world and the competitive edge. fierce competition of cashew industry. This problem also means that businesses must pay attention to product quality to limit complaints from buyers and contribute to the sustainable development of Vietnam's cashew industry. In addition, the plant should also have a plan for 2021. This year, prolonged drought may not be good crop in 2021. Therefore, if the price is good and financially balanced, businesses can buy and dry it for use in the first quarter of 2021, avoiding passive dependence on crude sources of Tanzania and Indonesia, which are often very high prices.
The volume of imported raw cashew nuts in the first 3 months reached 161 thousand tons and 246 million USD, down 29.5% in volume and 37.9% in value over the same period in 2019. The main cashew import market in the month 3/2020 are Tanzania, Indonesia, Cambodia, Ivory Coast and Nigeria. In February 2020, cashew nut imports from Tarzania and Indonesia increased (Indonesia increased by 70% in volume and 47.3% in value over the same period in 2019).
Thanh Nguyễn
Source: Customs Newspaper
